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Work Package 3 - Economic Drivers

WP3 aims at identifying key economic drivers of economic cohesion within EU-Turkey relations since 1999 and at substantiating one or more likely scenarios for this relationship. In economic terms, future scenarios could result in different options ranging from a continuation or modernization of the Customs Union, its scaling back to a free trade agreement, or Turkey’s entry into the single market. General determinants for the different scenarios would be Turkey’s capability to comply with the economic Copenhagen Criteria (especially regarding the institutional setup) as well as the economic challenges the EU is facing. 

Additionally, the analysis of WP3 identifies four main focal pillars that structure the EU-Turkey economic relations and are likely to shape future outcomes: 

  1. Flows of goods and services (particularly the past and the future of the Customs Union); 
  2. Flows of finance;
  3. Flows of knowledge as well as 
  4. Key political economy developments such as the prospects for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and the Eurasian Economic Union. 

As all thematic work packages of FEUTURE, WP3’s research agenda addresses two questions: (1) What economic drivers are relevant and what is their constellations? (2) What are the most prominent drivers both within each focal pillar and across them? 

WP3 has started to investigate the existing economic drivers and, based on these drivers, tries to identify others that may play a role in the future of EU-Turkey relations. In the later stages of the project the analysis will determine the impact of these identified drivers by weighing and ranking them with the aim of substantiating one or more of the project’s three proposed scenarios – Conflict, Cooperation and Convergence (see  PDF FEUTURE Background Paper). The WP also aims to provide a synthesis of policy efforts that not only fit the Europe 2020 Strategy but also address the challenges that the European Commission’s annual progress reports raise.

The participants of the WP (METU, UzK, AUC, CRRC, EDAM, ELIAMEP) will bring new insights on the future of EU-Turkey economic relations. 

AUC

 

Marco Pinfari, Justine Louis

 

CRRC

Koba Turmanidze, Tsisana Khundadze, Rati Shubladze, George Berulava

EDAM

Yeşil Deniz, Can Selçuki

ELIAMEP

Panagiota Manoli

METU

Erkan Erdil (WP Leader), İ. Semih Akçomak, Hasan Cömert, Muhsin Doğan, Cansu Durukan

UzK

Funda Tekin, Wolfgang Wessels