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Work Package 4 - Security Drivers

Work Package 4 seeks to identify key security drivers that are likely to lead to one of the three envisaged ideal-type scenarios: conflict, cooperation or convergence in EU-Turkey relations. It takes as its point of departure the ways in which security interests and perceived threats have shaped relations since 1999. The aim is to assess the similarities/differences in how the two sides interpret key global and regional security issues that are summed up in four clusters, covering the project’s four levels of analysis: Turkey, EU, neighbourhood and global. Two main questions will be addressed: (1) What security drivers are relevant and what constellations of them exist? (2) What are the most prominent drivers both within each focal issue and across them? As a last task, weighing and ranking of the identified drivers will serve to substantiate the proposed scenario(s).

Whereas security issues have traditionally been dealt under the NATO framework, recent security developments in the region have had major political, economic and social effects for Ankara and Brussels. These include Russia’s rising assertiveness and military presence, the increasing trans-nationalization of threats arising from non-state actors, the rising political and military prominence of Kurdish militant groups, as well as the faltering state structures in the Middle East, which have translated as refugees, terror attacks, and direct military involvement for the two sides. Against its importance, the research matter is also challenging because it presents a moving target.

Papers submitted:

Guideline Paper on Security Drivers, October 2016 (internal)

This paper establishes the framework for the analysis of the security drivers by defining the focal issues in more detail and setting up a common methodology for the research.

Soli Özel, Pol Morillas, Jakob Lindgaard, Evolution of EU and Turkey's Security Interests, Threat Perceptions and Discourse, March 2017 (public)

This paper discusses how Turkey’s security interests have developed since 1999, what role the EU has played, and vice versa. As one important aspect, it takes into consideration the influence of NATO on the EU-Turkey security relationship.

Past activities:

Joint WP2-WP4 Workshop for the Identification of Focal Issues of “Power” , Istanbul, September 2016

FEUTURE's joint WP2-WP4 workshop, under the co-leadership of EDAM and CIDOB, facilitated horizontal communication in order to monitor and increase the coherence of FEUTURE’s research. 

Upcoming papers:

Paper on drivers within Cyprus/Greece (January 2018)

Paper on drivers within Eastern Neighborhood and the Caucasus (January 2018)

Paper on drivers within Middle East (January 2018)

Paper on drivers within global dynamics (January 2018)

Upcoming activities:

Second joint WP2-WP4 workshop (February 2018) 

Researchers involved:

 IAI

Nathalie Tocci, Andrea Dessi

CIDOB

Pol Morillas, Nicolas de Pedro

CRRC

Taylor Braun-Dorrell

DIIS

Jakob Lindgaard,Fabrizio Tassinari

EDAM

Sinan Ülgen (WP Leader), Doruk Ergun, Soli Özel, Can Kasapoglu 

ELIAMEP

Thanos Dokos, Panagiota Manoli 

MERI

Khogir Wirya Mohammed, Kamaran Palani