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FEUTURE Online Paper No. 3

Evolution of the EU's and Turkey's Security Interests, Threat Perceptions and Discourse

The aim of this FEUTURE paper is threefold. First, it aims to present in outline the main dynamics that have characterized the security relations between Turkey and the EU since WWII, with a par-ticular emphasis on the post-1999 period. Secondly, it identifies the main drivers that underpin the security manifestations of Turkey-EU relations. Thirdly, and on that footing, it presents the most likely of the three FEUTURE scenarios — conflict, cooperation, and convergence — in the field of security dynamics for the near future. In particular, the paper highlights both the centrip-etal and centrifugal forces that have marked and continue to mark the relationship. Also, global and regional dynamics and particularly the choices of the United States in the security sphere often drive the relationship even if domestic dynamics have seen a growing salience in the Post-Crisis period. .

Author: Soli Özel, Pol Morillas, Jakob Lindgaard

Date: April 2017

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FEUTURE Online Paper No. 2

Energy and Climate Strategies, Interests and Priorities of the EU and Turkey

Energy is one of the sectors in which EU–Turkey cooperation could be most fruitful, possibly leading overall convergence through the common achievement of mutual interests in key areas – in particular, natural gas imports and diversification. Yet, this collaboration is undermined by the uncertainty over Turkey’s position vis-à-vis these policies and its undefined commitment to others, such as renewables and nuclear power; by doubts over the ability of the EU to balance security of supply, sustainability and competitiveness; and by the unclear growth trends of both regions. This situation is partially balanced by Turkey’s and the EU’s participation in several – sometimes successful – platforms for energy cooperation on the bilateral and multilateral levels (i.e. ENTSO-E, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity and Med-TSO, the Association of the Mediterranean Transmission System Operators), which are aimed at the integration of the two polities’ energy markets. Nonetheless, the overall energy framework still needs a strong policy boost to set it on a common path towards convergence.

 

Energy is one of the sector

s

in which EU

Turkey cooperation could be most fruitful, possibly

leading overall convergence through

the common achievement of

mutual interests in key areas

in particular

,

natural

gas imports

and diversification

. Yet,

this collaboration is undermined by

the uncertainty over Turkey’s position

vis

-

à

-

vis

these policies

and

its undefined commitment

to

others, such as renewables and nuclear power

;

by doubts over

t

he ability of the EU to balance

security of supply, sustainability and competitiveness

;

and by

the unclear growth trends of both

regions.

This

situation

is partially balanced by

Turkey

’s

and the EU

’s participation

in

several

sometimes successful

platfo

rms for energy cooperation

on the bilateral and multilateral level

s

(i.e. ENTSO

-

E

,

the

European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity

and Med

-

TSO

,

the

Association of the Mediterranean Transmission System Operators

),

which are

aim

ed

at

the integration of the

two

polities’

energy markets.

Nonetheless

, the overall energy framework

still needs a strong policy boost to

set it on

a common path towards convergence.

Author: Lorenzo Colantoni, Dicle Korkmaz, Nicolò Sartori, Mirja Schroeder, Duygu Sever-Mehmetoglu, Suhnaz Yilmaz

Date: March 2017

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Watch also Lorenzo Colantoni introducing this paper within 60 Seconds.

 

 

 

FEUTURE PhD Online Paper No. 1

The discursive construction of Turkey’s role for European energy security: a critical geopolitical perspective

This paper is the first issue of the FEUTURE PhD Online Paper Series. It is authored by  Mirja Schröder, M.A., who is PhD student at the University of Cologne and also involved in FEUTURE's WP 5 “Energy and Climate Drivers”. In her paper, she analyses EU-Turkey energy relations from a critical geopolitics perspective - analysing the Turkish self-percpetion as well as the EU's perspective.

Author: Mirja Schröder, M.A.

Date: March 2017

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FEUTURE Online Paper No 1
The future of EU-Turkey relations: between mutual distrust and interdependency

This FEUTURE Online Paper aims to offer a forward-looking analysis of EU-Turkey relations based on three scenarios: convergence, cooperation and conflict. It discusses current political and social developments in Turkey and takes stock of the recent EU-level and regional developments under positive, negative and unfolding trends. The discussion shows that the future will be most likely driven by a push and pull between cooperation and conflict scenarios. On the one hand, mutual interests concerning trade, diversification of energy sources, migration and regional security concerns will continue to motivate both sides to engage with each other as partners in the future. On the other hand, Turkey’s domestic political developments marked by authoritarianisation since 2013 and violation of the freedom expression and the rule of law in the post-15 July period will strengthen the conflict scenario. It concludes with a discussion that the current EU apathy towards the social and political developments in Turkey undermines the EU’s normative influence and the credibility of the enlargement policy.

Author: Bilge Yabanci, Istituto Affari Internazionali (visiting researcher)

Date: November 2016

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FEUTURE Working Paper:

Mapping periods and milestones of past EU-Turkey relations

This Working Paper aims to embed FEUTURE’s analysis of drivers of EU-Turkey relations in a historical context. It does so by outlining and discussing several narratives which represent influential interpretations of EU-Turkey relations at different times in history. It is argued that narratives on EU-Turkey relations became increasingly competitive in the course of time, both within EU and Turkey as well as between them. The paper maps these changes of narratives in light of different historical milestones and phases. The periodization also serves to outline trends of conflict, cooperation and convergence as manifested in the political discourse. Thereby, the paper also serves as starting point for the ensuing qualitative analysis of a vast set of sources, representing the debates in Turkey and the EU.

Authors: Hanna-Lisa Hauge, Wolfgang Wessels, University of Cologne, Nurdan Selay Bedir, Atila Eralp, Middle East Technical University

Date: September 2016

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FEUTURE Background Paper

Turkey and the European Union: Scenarios for 2023

FEUTURE” – Future of EU-TUrkey RElations – analyses the past, present and future drivers of the EU-Turkey relationship. In order to navigate the possible future, a compass is necessary. This paper establishes this compass by imagining, delineating and systematizing three reference scenarios in order to organize subsequent research and eventually map out a most likely “feuture”. Drawing from Schwartz, the aim of these scenarios is to construct different pathways that might exist in future, suggesting and informing appropriate scholarly analysis or policy decisions that may be taken along those possible paths. Several conditions are proposed for the realisation of possible conflictual, cooperational or converging futures, taking into consideration forms of differentiated integration relating to these ideal-type scenarios.

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Author: Nathalie Tocci

Date: September 2016

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement No 692976.